Confessions of a Hoosier Democrat

Blogging Indiana Politics and the 2008 Presidential Race.

Thursday, October 12, 2006

Warner drops out before even starting...

Mark Warner announced today that he would not be seeking the Democratic nomination for President in 2008. Warner cited his family as the main reason for not running. "I know these moments are never going to come again. This weekend made clear what I'd been thinking about for many weeks that while politically this appears to be the right time for me to take the plunge at this point, I want to have a real life."

So... where does that leave everyone else, especially Senator Bayh? Two words... Sitting pretty.

Let's take a look at the other candidates...

I'm going to skip Edwards, but honestly I don't think this affects him much. He still has his base and message...

I still don't think Hillary will run... I think she's smart enough to realize what would happen if she did win the nomination.

I think Kerry will either not run or start and bow out early when he realizes that a lot of the people who supported him won't come back under his tent.

Vilsack I think will come to his senses and realize if he can't even get better than 3rd place in his own state he doens't have a chance anywhere else...

That leaves Clark, Richardson, Biden, Gephardt and Bayh (and I'm sure I'm forgetting someone else)... but of those only Bayh has the money to buy the name recognition needed to increase his numbers. And with Warner out, I'm sure the All America PAC staff is burning up the phone lines securing Warner's financial backers to dump more money into his coffers...

Regardless of whether or not you agree with 100% of his views, you HAVE to admit this is a HUGE bonus for Bayh.

But don't take my word for it... Let's see what other people are saying...

Political Derby:
Who benefits the most? That’s a no-brainer, and I have one word for you, Evan Bayh. Time to send Warner some chocolates, a few nice Mylar balloons and one of those giant thank you cards. The center of track has just become a heckuvalot less crowded.
The Fix:
The most obvious winner from the Warner news is Indiana Sen. Evan Bayh. Bayh and Warner shared much of the same ideological territory -- moderate, consensus builders elected in red states. After helping Gov. Tim Kaine (D) win the governorship in 2005, Warner became the "it" boy of national politics -- the candidate seen as most likely to emerge as the alternative to New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D).

Warner's ascent came at the expense of Bayh, who found much of the air sucked out of his candidacy. No longer. Party insiders say that there was a major behind-the-scenes fight for donors and activists between Bayh and Warner.

Not surprisingly, the first statement from a prospective 2008er on Warner's decision came from Bayh, who praised the former governor as "exceptional public servant, a great leader, and an influential voice in the Democratic Party." You can expect Bayh to be on the phone today to some of the money men who had sided with Warner in hopes of locking them up for his own bid.
Taking Warner's place in the third spot is the person who I believe may benefit most from Warner's departure - Indiana Senator Evan Bayh who rises from fifth. Russ Feingold stays in fourth, with everyone else moving up one place to fill the gap left above them.


  • At October 13, 2006 11:32 AM, Blogger Mark Daniels said…

    Thanks for dropping by my blog. As a student of politics, I think that, because Warner was the presumptive nominee of the Democratic Party as far as I could tell, Bayh is in a good position at this point.

    I'll be watching your blog with interest.

    Mark Daniels

  • At October 13, 2006 10:28 PM, Blogger Holden said…

    I'm with you on all of this except the part where you say that Hillary is too smart to run. She's smart, but also clearly wants a higher office and I think she's a shoo-in to run on a wildly inadvisable "let's win everything Gore did plus one more state" strategy, which is such a bad idea (see Kerry in '04 for proof) that it's ridiculous. I also like to think that the rest of us Dems who really want to win this time around won't nominate her. Go Bayh!

  • At October 13, 2006 11:55 PM, Blogger nsight said…

    thanks for visiting, i am a big bayh fan, i'll work hard to make sure he comes out on top in oklahoma, nice blog, the fact that IN-8 is the only race that is not scandal related that cq rates as a dem gain says a lot about bayh and his passion to win

  • At October 16, 2006 3:32 PM, Blogger Daniel S. said…


Post a Comment

Links to this post:

Create a Link

<< Home