Confessions of a Hoosier Democrat

Blogging Indiana Politics and the 2008 Presidential Race.

Friday, May 05, 2006

The Fix's Friday Line

Chris Cillizza offers his analysis of the '08 election again... He says that the Dems have as many as 7-8 contenders, while the Republicans only have about 3.

The Fix says that John McCain, George Allen and Mitt Romney are the three contenders for the GOP, with Frist, Huckabee, Brownback, Hagel, Pataki and Mark Sanford listed as also rans. He does note that Guiliani is getting close to jumping in and if he does he'll vault into the contender status.

For the Dems, he has the usual top 5... Hillary, Edwards, Kerry, Warner and of course Evan Bayh. Here's his take on Sen Bayh.

The Fix's dark horse in the presidential field, Indiana's Evan Bayh is working as hard as any other candidate in terms of his travel schedule and getting face time with key donors. He's also less conservative and less dull than most people think. Plus, Bayh will end 2006 with at least $10 million (and probably several million more) in his Senate campaign account, which he can transfer directly to a presidential committee. Bayh's challenge is to win, place or show in the '08 Iowa caucuses, since he has a natural geographic appeal there and has already been spending considerable time courting the state's voters. If Bayh doesn't make a strong showing in Iowa, it's hard to see how he stays competitive in New Hampshire and beyond. (Of course, it remains to be seen what state or states will be added by the Democratic National Committee to hold their primaries between Iowa and New Hampshire -- an X-factor in every Democratic hopeful's calculations.)

Two things to note... "Less conservative"... Bayh is consistently called both a liberal and a conservative at the same time. Conservative Republicans always say he's "in bed with Kennedy and the left wing" while Liberal Democrats always say "he might as well be a Republican"... I'm constantly amazed by the dicotomy.

Second... "Less dull than most people think"... I can't tell you the number times I've heard (or rather read) people say that when they saw Sen Bayh in person he was nothing like they thought. How he always impresses them with his oratory skill... Once he starts campaigning for real people will see the real Evan Bayh.

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